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​COVID-19 SEIR Models

Comparison of Some Epidemiological Models on COVID-19 Spread in Kerala

From herpes and legionnaires’ disease in the 1970s to AIDS, Ebola, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and now COVID-19, infectious ailments proceed to undermine and disrupt human populaces. The COVID-19 outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, China, and has spread to more than 200 countries including India. WHO declared COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020. In India, the first COVID-19 case was reported in Kerala on 30th January 2020. Normally, a rising infectious disease includes quick-spreading, jeopardizing the wellbeing of a majority of the population, thus requiring prompt activities to forestall the disease at the community level. So, we need to track the COVID-19 and also understand the nature of spreading so that the authorities can take necessary measures to prevent social spreading. This is only possible by analyzing reliable news as well as statistical and epidemiological analysis. In this paper, we try to analyze the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kerala and to predict and forecast COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries through predictive modeling. The model helps to interpret patterns of the influence of the spread of the virus.

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